The ongoing Syrian conflict, which has raged for more than a decade, has not only devastated the country but also altered the balance of power in the Middle East. Once a key player in regional geopolitics, the Syrian government, led by President Bashar al-Assad, has seen its support erode over time. As global conflicts continue to shift alliances and reconfigure international relations, the support for Assad’s regime has become increasingly fractured. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan recently highlighted the decline of the influence of Syria’s main backers, attributing this shift to the broader geopolitical tensions that are reshaping the Middle East. This article explores how these shifting alliances are affecting the future of Syria’s political landscape and what the broader implications are for the region’s stability.
The Changing Dynamics of Support for the Syrian Government
When the Syrian civil war began in 2011, the government of Bashar al-Assad enjoyed the backing of powerful international allies, most notably Russia and Iran. These alliances were forged through a combination of strategic interests and shared goals, particularly in countering Western influence in the region. However, over the course of the conflict, various global powers and regional actors have shifted their priorities, and as a result, the once-solid support for Assad’s regime is weakening.
Russia’s Evolving Role in Syria
Russia has been one of the Syrian government’s most steadfast allies throughout the war, providing crucial military support and political backing. In 2015, Russian intervention turned the tide in favor of Assad, with airstrikes and ground support helping to retake key territory from opposition forces. However, the relationship between Moscow and Damascus is beginning to show signs of strain. Russia’s involvement in Ukraine has drawn significant international attention and resources, diverting focus away from the Middle East. As Russia faces increasing sanctions and economic challenges due to its actions in Ukraine, its ability to provide unwavering support to Assad has diminished. The conflict in Ukraine has not only drained Russian resources but has also led to growing isolation in the international arena, with many countries distancing themselves from Russia’s influence in the region.
Iran’s Waning Influence and Shifting Alliances
Similarly, Iran has long been a key ally of Syria, providing both military assistance and financial support to Assad’s government. Tehran views the survival of the Syrian regime as a critical component of its strategy to maintain influence in the region, particularly through its “Axis of Resistance,” which includes Hezbollah in Lebanon and various militia groups in Iraq and Syria. However, Iran’s involvement in the Syrian conflict is also facing increasing challenges. The financial burden of supporting Assad, combined with growing internal unrest and external pressures, is weakening Iran’s position. Moreover, the rise of Sunni Arab states, notably Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), seeking to reassert their influence in Syria, complicates Iran’s strategic calculations.
Global Conflicts and Their Impact on the Middle East
The broader geopolitical landscape is undergoing significant shifts, with global conflicts like the war in Ukraine, the U.S.-China tensions, and the rising influence of regional powers all playing a role in reshaping alliances in the Middle East. In particular, the growing rivalry between the U.S. and China has led to a reordering of strategic priorities that affects the Middle East’s political alignments.
The U.S. and the Changing Middle Eastern Order
Under President Joe Biden, the United States has adopted a more cautious approach toward the Middle East. While the Biden administration has maintained support for Kurdish forces and anti-Assad rebels, its overall focus has shifted toward confronting China in the Indo-Pacific. As a result, the U.S. has become less directly involved in Syrian affairs, leaving a power vacuum that regional actors are eager to fill. Additionally, the U.S. has placed heavy sanctions on the Assad regime and its allies, but these sanctions have failed to force a change in leadership, leading many regional states to reconsider their positions.
Saudi Arabia’s Re-engagement with Syria
One of the most significant shifts in Middle Eastern geopolitics in recent years has been Saudi Arabia’s re-engagement with Syria. After years of supporting opposition groups and calling for Assad’s removal, Saudi Arabia has pivoted toward normalization with the Syrian government. This shift was prompted in part by the changing regional dynamics and the desire to counterbalance Iran’s growing influence in the region. The Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has been moving toward reconciling with Syria, and in 2023, the country was reinvited to the Arab League after a suspension that lasted nearly a decade.
- Saudi Arabia’s re-engagement with Syria signals a broader trend of normalization in the Arab world.
- The GCC’s efforts to mend relations with Damascus are part of a larger strategy to diminish Iran’s influence in the region.
The UAE and Other Gulf States
Similarly, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been a vocal proponent of re-establishing diplomatic relations with Syria. After a period of isolation, the UAE opened its embassy in Damascus in 2018, signaling its willingness to engage with Assad’s regime. The UAE’s shift is also motivated by a desire to reduce Iran’s influence in Syria and to reassert Arab leadership in the Middle East. However, the normalization of ties between the UAE and Syria has been met with criticism from Western powers, who argue that it undermines efforts to hold Assad accountable for alleged war crimes during the civil war.
Implications for Syria’s Future
The shifting alliances and the decreasing support for Assad’s regime have profound implications for Syria’s future. On one hand, the re-engagement of Arab states with Syria could provide a pathway for the country to reintegrate into the regional fold and receive economic support that could help in its reconstruction. On the other hand, the ongoing regional rivalries, coupled with the challenges posed by international sanctions, could continue to hinder Syria’s recovery and stability.
Economic and Humanitarian Challenges
Syria’s economy is in ruins, with widespread poverty, unemployment, and infrastructure destruction. Even if Syria’s relations with Arab states improve, the economic recovery will be slow. International reconstruction aid is unlikely to flow freely as long as the Assad regime remains in power, and many Western nations are unwilling to invest in a country they hold responsible for egregious human rights violations. The future of Syrian society will hinge on whether the international community can find a way to balance humanitarian aid with political solutions that lead to long-term peace and stability.
Potential for Long-term Political Reform
The shifting alliances could also open the door for political reform in Syria. If Assad’s support continues to erode, there may be increased pressure within the regime itself for a change in leadership. Furthermore, with regional actors like Saudi Arabia and the UAE becoming more involved in Syria, there may be room for dialogue about a more inclusive political process, one that could lead to greater stability in the country. However, such a shift would require cooperation between Syria’s internal factions, regional powers, and international stakeholders, which remains a distant prospect as of now.
Conclusion: A Region in Flux
The Syrian conflict is far from over, but the shifting alliances surrounding the Assad regime are indicative of broader changes in the Middle East. With Russia and Iran facing internal and external pressures, and regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE recalibrating their foreign policies, the future of Syria’s political landscape remains uncertain. While opportunities for reconciliation and reconstruction may arise, the road to lasting peace will be fraught with challenges. The international community will need to navigate these complexities carefully to ensure that the future of Syria is one of stability, reconciliation, and sustainable development.
For more information on the broader geopolitical shifts in the Middle East, visit CFR Middle East and North Africa.
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